BMKG Opens Voice about Prediction of Extended Rainy Season: Transitional Period

Jakarta, CNN Indonesia —

Head of the Climate Change Information Center at the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Dodo Gunawan opened his voice about the expert’s analysis which mentions the potential for an extension of the rainy season in Indonesia.

This condition is related to the rains that are still falling frequently in various regions, while the BMKG has reminded that this month has entered the transition to the dry or transition season.

In addition, the agency has repeatedly revealed predictions of the arrival of a dry dry season due to the weak El Nino phenomenon.



Dodo explained that transition refers to a period of transition or shifting of seasons, either from rainy to dry or vice versa. One of its characteristics, strong winds with changing directions.

“What we predict is the beginning of the (rainy/dry) season, now ahead of the seasons we predict, it can be said to be a transitional period. For example, an area is predicted to have a dry season in April, so March is the transition period. It will still be accompanied by rain,” he explained he told, Tuesday (28/3).

“We are still in the rainy season months and will end it,” he added.

According to him, “the current phenomenon is La Nina”, which is active from 2020 to the end of 2022.

“So now the conditions of the atmosphere and sea from La Nina will move towards neutral,” said Dodo, “starting from the middle of this year there will be a weak El Nino phenomenon until the end of the year.”

Quoted from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Nina, which is literally a little girl, is simply interpreted as a cold event.

This climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean triggers stronger-than-usual trade winds, pushing more warm water toward Asia, and triggering more rain.

Dodo continued that there is a factor of Indonesia’s geographical position in the Asian Monsoon region.

The Asian monsoon, quoted from Auburn University, refers to parts of the Asian continent that experience significant shifts in seasonal wind patterns throughout the region.

“The Asian monsoon coincides with the rainy season, the wind blows from the Asian continent, and the Australian monsoon coincides with the dry season. The wind blows from the Australian continent,” he explained.

“Indeed, currently the Asian Monsoon is still active with the symptoms as analyzed,” he continued.

He also explained the stages of the dry season in Indonesia, which are still very small at the moment.

In March 2023, he said, only one percent of Indonesia’s territory had entered the dry season. Among them, three areas in Bali, one area in Banten-DKI, and three areas in NTB.

In April, he continued, drought occurred in 17 percent of the area. For example, 27 regions in NTT, 21 regions in NTB, and 45 regions in East Java.

In May, drought reached 22 percent of the area. For example, 34 regions in Central Java. June, the dry season hit 22 percent of the area. For example, 17 regions in Riau.

July, drought is present in 10 percent of the area, such as 12 regions in Central Sulawesi. August, drought covers 4 percent of the area, for example six regions in South Sulawesi.

September, the dry season only exists in 2 percent of regions in Indonesia, such as five regions in West Papua.

Previously, weather researcher from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) Erma Yulihastin predicted that there would be an extension of the rainy season.

The prolongation of the rainy season, said Erma, is indicated by the growth and movement of vortex storms in the southern Indian Ocean, rain that continues to fall, the presence of Equator Kelvin and Rossby waves, and the uneven El Nino.

Experts themselves reveal that extreme climate phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina are related to global warming, especially due to human activities. For example, excessive use of fuel. As a result, more and more floods, more arid drought.


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