Jakarta, CNN Indonesia —
Indonesian Political Indicators record that the electability of the Governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo, has stagnated in the last few months.
On the other hand, the electability of the general chairman of the Gerindra Party, Prabowo Subianto, has increased. Meanwhile, Anies Baswedan is getting weaker.
Executive Director of Indonesian Political Indicators Burhanuddin Muhtadi added that in the 2024 simulation of three presidential candidates (Capres), Ganjar’s vote was still the highest with 36.8 percent. Followed by Prabowo 27 percent; Anies 26.8 percent; and another 9.4 percent of votes said they did not know or did not answer.
“Even though he is in first place, it’s also not that big. Even in a few months it tends to stagnate. Pak Prabowo, who was initially thought to be just waiting for his time to be thrown out of the competition, turned out to be competitive again in a few months,” Burhanuddin said in an online event, Sunday (26/3).
Meanwhile, if you look at the political indicator survey graphs in the last five months, Ganjar’s electability is still not stable. In October 2022, the electability is 35.1 percent.
Then it dropped to 33.9 in November 2022. In December 2022, electability again rose to 35.8 percent.
Then, electability rose again to 37.4 in February 2023. But then fell to 36.8 in March 2023.
While Prabowo’s 26.3 percent in October 2022. Then it drops to 23.9 percent in November 2022; rose to 26.7 percent in December 2023. Then fell in February 2023 to 24.1 percent, and rose to 27 percent in March 2023.
Meanwhile, Anies earned 28.3 percent in October 2022 and experienced a significant increase to 32.2 percent in November 2022. Then decreased to 28.3 percent in December 2022; rose to 29.4 percent in February 2023, and fell again to 26.8 percent in March 2023.
“Mas Anies, who had gained momentum after being nominated by NasDem, even getting support from the Democrats and PKS turned out to be weak,” he said.
The findings of this national survey were carried out during the February-March 2023 period. Survey respondents were Indonesian citizens aged 17 and over who had the right to vote in general elections.
Selected survey respondents were interviewed face to face and came from all provinces which were distributed proportionally. Then, the sampling of this survey used the multistage random sampling method.
In the period 9-16 February 2023, the number of samples was 1,220 people. Assuming a simple random sampling method, a sample size of 1,200 respondents has an error tolerance of approximately 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
Meanwhile, during the survey period March 12-18 2023, the number of samples was 800 people. Assuming a simple random sampling method, a sample size of 800 respondents has an error tolerance of approximately 3.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.